Conclusions

- Internal Consumer

If one forecasts an annual growth of 15% in value for Brazilian exports, compatible with the average rate of the last 3 years, and therefore feasible for the next 3 years, one will reach out for a US$ 355 million level in 2002 and US$ 618 million in 2006. During 2000, Brazilian exports increased 12%, in weight, and 5.9% in the percentual participation, in weight, of processed rocks in the total exported, translating the referred growth in 16.8%, in value, compared to 1999. ver tabela

Based on a simulation compatible with the performance of 2000, which admits a 10% per year increase, in weight, for the exports, in addition to a 5% per year increase in the percentual participation, in weight, of processed rocks in the total exported, Brazilian exports would reach out for a US$ 750 million revenues in the year 2006; this would represent the duplication, in weight, and the triplication, in value, of Brazilian exports. If it is admitted a 10% per year increase in the percentual participation, in weight, of processed rocks on the total exported, we would have the same duplication in weight but to fourfold in value of the exports, reaching out for US$ 1 billion in the year 2006.

Recent studies by the World Bank show that for each US$ 1 billion exported, 50 to 70 thousand jobs are generated. Considering the forecast of 15% annual increase of the exports on the stones sector, we can estimate the generation of, at least, 17.5 to 24.5 thousand jobs up to the year 2006. In accordance with other simulations that forecast a sharper and possible growth of processed rocks stake in the exports, the sector can generate up to 54.1 thousand jobs within the same period, what would represent a 50% increase of the direct labor currently working within the sector.

From simulations of the capital goods demand for the industrial complex, drawn up through exports and internal consumption forecasts, it can be seen the need for aggregation of at lest 560 new looms, 190 new polishing machines and 50 new blocks chiseling machines up to the year 2006. To meet the necessary demands for the industrial complex updating, it is forecasted investments of at least US$ 1 billion up to the year 2015.

The capital goods industry installed in Brazil does not have the capacity to meet the forecasted demand.

With the objective of meeting the forecasted sawing demand for 2015, it will be necessary to reach out for a blocks primary production of approximately 14 million tons/year, representing an increase of 3.5 times the current production. Considering a stabilized universe of 1,000 active quarries in Brazil, it would be necessary investments for the conversion of the current average primary production of 150 m3/month per quarry to approximately 500 m3/month, representing an investment in capital goods of circa US$ 350 thousand per quarry up to 2015, totaling US$ 350 million.

The Brazilian processing industrial complex is currently technologically dephased, specially because of the age of the machines and equipment in operation. The updating of this industrial complex may be made feasible by means of the adjustment/automation of the machines and equipment already installed in Brazil and with up to 10 years of use, and specially by means of the acquisition of technologically updated capital goods.

We must mention that the biggest portion of the looms in operation in Brazil has more than 10 years of activity and they do not incorporate peripheral equipment that optimize their productivity.

In this sense, we can highlight the importance of lime dosers coupling, shot recovers, connecting rod automatic adjusters, blade hydraulic tensioners and inlet automatic controls.

The strengthening of the internal market, considered as basic for the development of finished products and services exports, demands investments for the updating of marble workshops, stressing that, with the possible exception made for bridge milling cutters, there is no Brazilian production of automatic finishing machines.